Gold Cup schedule, TV listings, odds, picks: Mexico favored ahead of Americans entering quarterfinal

Fresh off winning a trophy in the CONCACAF Nations League, the U.S. men’s national team is three wins away from another one this summer. The CONCACAF Gold Cup has reached the knockout phase, but the Americans are not the favorites to win.

Mexico has that claim on BetMGM, with +110 odds despite losing to Qatar in its final group match. The Mexicans had already clinched first place in Group B before that loss, but that will not settle an El Tri fanbase that is already uneasy, to say the least.

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The U.S. is next in the odds at +275. Then it’s wide open, with the rest of the quarterfinalists viewed as longshots.

CONCACAF Gold Cup odds

The U.S. had convincing victories against Mexico and Canada in the Nations League less than a month ago, but the team is almost completely different. Four players from the Nations League roster are also on the Gold Cup squad (Matt Turner, Sean Johnson, Alejandro Zendejas and Alan Soñora). Of those four, only Turner, the starting goalkeeper, played in either Nations League match.

It was apparent how different this American team is in an 1-1 draw against Jamaica that opened the Gold Cup. Jamaica led for most of the match and Turner had to save a penalty kick in the first half to prevent the Caribbean nation from going up two goals. Brandon Vázquez eventually tied the match with a goal in the 88th minute.

Canada has 14 players from its Nations League team on the Gold Cup roster, but is missing most of its big name players. Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Stephen Eustáquio are among the standouts Canada does not have in the Gold Cup. The Canadians struggled in the group phase with draws against Guadeloupe (in Toronto) and Guatemala before beating Cuba on Tuesday to advance.

With the U.S. and Canada playing without their top players, it’s easy to see why Mexico is the favorite. El Tri has nearly the entire squad back from the Nations League, although that team got embarrassed in a 3-0 loss to the Americans.

Gold Cup quarterfinals

Panama vs. Qatar

Kickoff: Saturday, July 8, 7 p.m. ET

TV: FS1, Univision

Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Odds to advance: Panama -275, Qatar +175

Panama has been one of the bigger surprises of the tournament by winning Group C comfortably. Bizarrely, Panama allowed a goal in stoppage time in all three group matches. The first two came with Panama up 2-0 and the last one cost Los Canaleros a win against El Salvador, but that was after Panama had locked up first place in the group.

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Panama has made two Gold Cup finals (2005, 2013), but hasn’t made it past the quarterfinals since 2015. Panama is heavily favored to end that drought.

Qatar made the semifinals of the Gold Cup in 2021 and is back in the knockout stage this year. It took a shocking 1-0 win against Mexico to advance after the Qataris got one point from their first two matches.

Mexico vs. Costa Rica

Kickoff: Saturday, July 8, 9:30 p.m. ET

TV: FS1, Univision

Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Odds to advance: Mexico -650, Costa Rica +375

Mexico dominated Honduras and was mostly in control against Haiti, but the loss to Qatar resurfaced questions about this team. Still, Mexico is the biggest favorite of the quarterfinals.

Costa Rica had a slow start to the Gold Cup with a loss to Panama and a goalless draw against El Salvador, but put advanced with a wild 6-4 win against a Martinique team that started the day in second place in the group. The Ticos last beat Mexico in 2013. Mexico has seven wins and three draws against Costa Rica since.

Guatemala vs. Jamaica

Kickoff: Sunday, July 9, 5 p.m. ET

TV: FS1, Univision

Venue: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati

Odds to advance: Jamaica -300, Guatemala +200

Jamaica hasn’t been a power in the region but has one of the most talented teams in this tournament. The English Premier League trio of Leon Bailey, Michail Antonio and Demarai Gray give the Reggae Boyz three of the best players in the Gold Cup. After drawing the U.S. in Chicago and blowing away Trinidad and Tobago and then Saint Kitts and Nevis in the group stage, the results have gone along with the talent so far.

Jamaica is the only Caribbean nation left in the field and the only group runner-up to be favored in a quarterfinal. The Reggae Boyz have recently succeeded in the Gold Cup, making the final in 2015 and 2017 and the semifinals in 2019.

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Guatemala hasn’t made it to the quarterfinals since 2011.

USA vs. Canada

Kickoff: Sunday, July 9, 7:30 p.m. ET

TV: FS1, Univision

Venue: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati

Odds to advance: USA -250, Canada +175

These two nations played for a trophy less than three weeks ago, but most players who took part will not be in Cincinnati. Canada has five starters from the match; the Americans have one.

The U.S. hasn’t been tested since struggling in an opening draw against Jamaica. The Americans picked up a pair of 6-0 wins since. Jesús Ferreira scored a hat trick by the 50th minute against Saint Kitts and Nevis and then pulled off the feat by halftime against Trinidad and Tobago. Canada should represent a tougher test, though.

This is viewed as the most competitive quarterfinal based on the odds. There’s also a decent chance of a high-scoring match with over 2.5 goals having -110 odds.

Canada last beat the Americans on U.S. soil in 1957.

(Photo of Djordje Mihailovic: Bill Barrett/USSF / Getty Images)

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